Newt Gingrich has just clinched Obama’s re-election in 2012

On Saturday, South Carolina Republican Primary voters cast their votes for the candidate that they most believe represents their views. Though Iowa and New Hampshire delegates went to Mitt Romney, South Carolina cast its delegates to Newt Gingrich – and by a stunning margin. So with three primary races behind us, what’s different about South Carolina? The Tea Party.

South Carolina is as red as any red state in the Union. Its State Senate is made up of 27 Republicans and 19 Democrats. Its legislature is made up of 76 Republicans and 48 Democrats. It has a Republican governor. And the Tea Party is strong there, as it is in other states where the Confederate flag once flew.

So who is the Tea Party? According to exit polls it consists mainly of anti-abortion voters who lack any post-secondary education. (I’m not making this up.) In my mind, I picture a parking lot full of vinyl-topped Mercury Grand Marquis’ and assorted mini vans outside of Tea Party stronghold polling places, most of which sport some sort of sort of religious article on the back, like a chrome fish or a bumper sticker commemorating their most recent trip to vacation bible school. Some of the extra witty folks will have a bumper sticker that reads, "Nobama" or "I'll keep my guns. You can keep the change". (This part, I am making up.)

Today, and in the weeks to come, the pews of Baptist churches, the stands of Nascar races, and the checkout aisles of the local Piggly Wiggly will be abuzz with newfound enthusiasm from Tea Party voters. “We can win this thing!” they’ll say. “We can finally kick that Muslim out of office and take our country back!” The candidacy of Newt Gingrich has whipped the angry and divisive Tea Party into an overheated frothy foam. But like all frothy foams, they just dissappear back into a milky background when all the hot air dissipates.

What the Tea Party doesn’t seem to understand is that they have effectively split the Republican Party in half, leaving it weak. There are two kinds of Republicans now – moderate Republicans and Tea Party Republicans. Moderate Republicans bristle at the thought of being identified with the Tea Party. Moderate Republicans are more apt to be educated, critical thinkers who do not march in lock step. They lean just to the right of center, politically speaking, and while they may have different ideas from their left leaning counterparts, they are reasonable people who despise the Tea Party’s claim of dominance over the Republican Party. Moderate Republicans will not vote for Newt Gingrich.

The Republican Primary schedule does not return to the Deep South, stronghold of the Tea Party, until March 6th. And even then, most of the states casting their votes will be ones in which moderate Republicans are much better represented, leaving Tea Party voters largely without a voice until it's too late.

Here are my predictions:

1) By the time all the shouting is over on March 6th, Mitt Romney will be the Republican nominee for 2012 (or extremely close to being the nominee by a wide margin).

2) Voter turnout for the Alabama and Mississippi primaries, held on March 16th will be remarkably low, because the Tea Party voters will be feeling much less enthusiastic.

3) In November, Democrats, feeling angry and frustrated over the way their interests have been represented in Congress for the last two years, will come out in force to re-elect President Obama.

4) In November, moderate Republicans, feeling enthusiastic about the chance to win the White House will come out in force to vote for Mitt Romney.

5) In November, Tea Party Republicans, will have a tepid showing at the polls. Some will hold their noses and vote for Mitt Romney, because after all, voting for a white Mormon is better than having a black Muslim for president. But many Tea Party voters will not be coaxed from their deer blinds and VFW barstools to pull a lever on Election Day.

6) Finally, thanks to the candidacy of Newt Gingrich, who has given the Tea Party a temporary home for its anger, and left the Republican Party splintered, President Obama will win re-election in 2012.

Thanks Newt!