On Saturday, South Carolina Republican Primary voters cast their votes for the candidate that they most believe represents their views. Though Iowa and New Hampshire delegates went to Mitt Romney, South Carolina cast its delegates to Newt Gingrich – and by a stunning margin. So with three primary races behind us, what’s different about South Carolina? The Tea Party.
South Carolina is as red as any red state in the Union. Its State Senate is made up of 27 Republicans and 19 Democrats. Its legislature is made up of 76 Republicans and 48 Democrats. It has a Republican governor. And the Tea Party is strong there, as it is in other states where the Confederate flag once flew.
So who is the Tea Party? According to exit polls it consists mainly of anti-abortion voters who lack any post-secondary education. (I’m not making this up.) In my mind, I picture a parking lot full of vinyl-topped Mercury Grand Marquis’ and assorted mini vans outside of Tea Party stronghold polling places, most of which sport some sort of sort of religious article on the back, like a chrome fish or a bumper sticker commemorating their most recent trip to vacation bible school. Some of the extra witty folks will have a bumper sticker that reads, "Nobama" or "I'll keep my guns. You can keep the change". (This part, I am making up.)
Today, and in the weeks to come, the pews of Baptist churches, the stands of Nascar races, and the checkout aisles of the local Piggly Wiggly will be abuzz with newfound enthusiasm from Tea Party voters. “We can win this thing!” they’ll say. “We can finally kick that Muslim out of office and take our country back!” The candidacy of Newt Gingrich has whipped the angry and divisive Tea Party into an overheated frothy foam. But like all frothy foams, they just dissappear back into a milky background when all the hot air dissipates.
What the Tea Party doesn’t seem to understand is that they have effectively split the Republican Party in half, leaving it weak. There are two kinds of Republicans now – moderate Republicans and Tea Party Republicans. Moderate Republicans bristle at the thought of being identified with the Tea Party. Moderate Republicans are more apt to be educated, critical thinkers who do not march in lock step. They lean just to the right of center, politically speaking, and while they may have different ideas from their left leaning counterparts, they are reasonable people who despise the Tea Party’s claim of dominance over the Republican Party. Moderate Republicans will not vote for Newt Gingrich.
The Republican Primary schedule does not return to the Deep South, stronghold of the Tea Party, until March 6th. And even then, most of the states casting their votes will be ones in which moderate Republicans are much better represented, leaving Tea Party voters largely without a voice until it's too late.
Here are my predictions:
1) By the time all the shouting is over on March 6th, Mitt Romney will be the Republican nominee for 2012 (or extremely close to being the nominee by a wide margin).
2) Voter turnout for the Alabama and Mississippi primaries, held on March 16th will be remarkably low, because the Tea Party voters will be feeling much less enthusiastic.
3) In November, Democrats, feeling angry and frustrated over the way their interests have been represented in Congress for the last two years, will come out in force to re-elect President Obama.
4) In November, moderate Republicans, feeling enthusiastic about the chance to win the White House will come out in force to vote for Mitt Romney.
5) In November, Tea Party Republicans, will have a tepid showing at the polls. Some will hold their noses and vote for Mitt Romney, because after all, voting for a white Mormon is better than having a black Muslim for president. But many Tea Party voters will not be coaxed from their deer blinds and VFW barstools to pull a lever on Election Day.
6) Finally, thanks to the candidacy of Newt Gingrich, who has given the Tea Party a temporary home for its anger, and left the Republican Party splintered, President Obama will win re-election in 2012.
Thanks Newt!
Monday, January 23, 2012
Thursday, January 12, 2012
I just know something is wrong, and nobody will tell me
I believe that the best way to form an opinion is to listen to both sides of an argument. Instead of hunkering down in the liberal television foxhole that is MSNBC, I flip the channels to listen, even stopping on Fox News for a while to find out what those sneaky Iranians are up to. On Sunday, I read all of the newspaper editorials – not just the ones from that liberal lefty editor, but even the ones from the old folks who write to say we should pass a law forbidding baggy pants. When nobody is watching me, I’ll turn on the religious channel and listen to the preacher tell me about the many reasons I will surely burn in hell (unless I send a love gift). I wonder what I am missing when I only listen to NPR and MSNBC and I feel like I need to see how the other side thinks. And so I listen, I read, and I think.
The problem that I have with organized religions, political parties, and cable news channels is that they only tell one side of an argument, leaving the listener to either agree with them or to feel ostracized. Oh, they may pretend to be “fair and balanced”, but the liberal-leaning lefty always sits alone at the afternoon round table discussion, defending his arguments against the four other ferocious righties. He sits there like a silent lump, probably because he’s afraid to take a 5-inch heel in the eye from one of the patriotic prostitutes that sit closest to the camera, showing off their freshly shaved legs and American flag lapel pins. But I listen anyway, because it gives me the opportunity to think about what is being said and to hear the other side of an argument that I might not have heard before.
Lately, I have watched several of the Republican presidential debates in an effort to understand their side of the arguments. Occasionally, there is a small glimmer of truth in there surrounded by all that fire and brimstone. For example, during a recent Republican presidential debate, one of the candidates actually suggested that we bring our troops home to defend our own borders and stop running our deficit up trying to be the world’s police force. I was heartened a bit by his comments until one of the other candidates went on to say that we should legislate that all the married gay people be forced to get divorced, or some such fear-based nonsense.
Regardless of whether it is a conservative presidential debate, a conservative news channel round table, or an editorial written by a conservative senior citizen, it seems like I have heard it all before. I began to think about why every conservative conversation is starting to sound so familiar, regardless of the topic. It suddenly dawned on me that the single tie that binds the conservative platform is fear.
Conservatives are frightened. They are frightened of communists, of the Chinese and the Iranians, that gasoline prices will go up, that gay people will get married, that illegal immigrants will take their jobs, that the deficit will bankrupt our country, that the Socialists will take over the legislature, that the European Union or the Federal Reserve will try to create a one world currency, that the United Nations will try to impose its will on them. Conservatives are afraid that someone or something will take their stuff or their money or to try to change their minds about something. There is no shortage of boogeymen to keep them locked inside their homes watching Fox News, pulling their blankets further over their heads, and waiting for the Mayan calendar to end or for the middle-eastern flavor of the month to nuke us.
Conservatives are comforted only by the status quo – a lack of change. They like it when people look the same and dress the same. They flock to homogeneous suburban neighborhoods with houses painted in earth tones and surround themselves with plenty of weapons to defend themselves against anyone who wants to take their stuff or speak a different language.
But I am not frightened because I have begun to come to terms with the fact that change is inevitable. Although progress can be slowed, the world will keep changing. No matter who gets voted into office and no matter how long we try to maintain the status quo, in the end, nothing will stop the world around us from changing. We can hunker down inside our beige suburban houses, trying to shut out the changing world around us while we listen to the music of our youth. We can vote for geriatric Presidents to help us lead our legislature to victory over the evils of today’s changing world. Or we can simply accept that change is a part of life. And that’s what I have decided to do. And that is why I am not a conservative.
Most members of my family have a problem with anxiety, including me. We are a worried and nervous clan who have never slept soundly. Anxiety must be a genetic trait because one of our family stories is about the day my grandmother looked particularly worried. When asked what was bothering her, she replied anxiously, “I just know something is wrong and nobody will tell me.” People in my family actually worry that they have nothing to worry about! They thrive on worry and anxiety, conjuring up boogeymen where none exist.
I wonder if that’s why so many of them vote for Republicans.
p.s. - If you are a conservative and you are feeling particularly secure and calm today, you can find something to help whip up that comfortable old feeling of fear and anxiety that you thrive on by clicking here: http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/index.html
The problem that I have with organized religions, political parties, and cable news channels is that they only tell one side of an argument, leaving the listener to either agree with them or to feel ostracized. Oh, they may pretend to be “fair and balanced”, but the liberal-leaning lefty always sits alone at the afternoon round table discussion, defending his arguments against the four other ferocious righties. He sits there like a silent lump, probably because he’s afraid to take a 5-inch heel in the eye from one of the patriotic prostitutes that sit closest to the camera, showing off their freshly shaved legs and American flag lapel pins. But I listen anyway, because it gives me the opportunity to think about what is being said and to hear the other side of an argument that I might not have heard before.
Lately, I have watched several of the Republican presidential debates in an effort to understand their side of the arguments. Occasionally, there is a small glimmer of truth in there surrounded by all that fire and brimstone. For example, during a recent Republican presidential debate, one of the candidates actually suggested that we bring our troops home to defend our own borders and stop running our deficit up trying to be the world’s police force. I was heartened a bit by his comments until one of the other candidates went on to say that we should legislate that all the married gay people be forced to get divorced, or some such fear-based nonsense.
Regardless of whether it is a conservative presidential debate, a conservative news channel round table, or an editorial written by a conservative senior citizen, it seems like I have heard it all before. I began to think about why every conservative conversation is starting to sound so familiar, regardless of the topic. It suddenly dawned on me that the single tie that binds the conservative platform is fear.
Conservatives are frightened. They are frightened of communists, of the Chinese and the Iranians, that gasoline prices will go up, that gay people will get married, that illegal immigrants will take their jobs, that the deficit will bankrupt our country, that the Socialists will take over the legislature, that the European Union or the Federal Reserve will try to create a one world currency, that the United Nations will try to impose its will on them. Conservatives are afraid that someone or something will take their stuff or their money or to try to change their minds about something. There is no shortage of boogeymen to keep them locked inside their homes watching Fox News, pulling their blankets further over their heads, and waiting for the Mayan calendar to end or for the middle-eastern flavor of the month to nuke us.
Conservatives are comforted only by the status quo – a lack of change. They like it when people look the same and dress the same. They flock to homogeneous suburban neighborhoods with houses painted in earth tones and surround themselves with plenty of weapons to defend themselves against anyone who wants to take their stuff or speak a different language.
But I am not frightened because I have begun to come to terms with the fact that change is inevitable. Although progress can be slowed, the world will keep changing. No matter who gets voted into office and no matter how long we try to maintain the status quo, in the end, nothing will stop the world around us from changing. We can hunker down inside our beige suburban houses, trying to shut out the changing world around us while we listen to the music of our youth. We can vote for geriatric Presidents to help us lead our legislature to victory over the evils of today’s changing world. Or we can simply accept that change is a part of life. And that’s what I have decided to do. And that is why I am not a conservative.
Most members of my family have a problem with anxiety, including me. We are a worried and nervous clan who have never slept soundly. Anxiety must be a genetic trait because one of our family stories is about the day my grandmother looked particularly worried. When asked what was bothering her, she replied anxiously, “I just know something is wrong and nobody will tell me.” People in my family actually worry that they have nothing to worry about! They thrive on worry and anxiety, conjuring up boogeymen where none exist.
I wonder if that’s why so many of them vote for Republicans.
p.s. - If you are a conservative and you are feeling particularly secure and calm today, you can find something to help whip up that comfortable old feeling of fear and anxiety that you thrive on by clicking here: http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/index.html
Monday, January 2, 2012
Dear Jesus, please help the Broncos win
When you think of Denver, what do you think of? The Rocky Mountains, right? But Denver isn’t in the mountains; it’s only near them. Without the mountains, the city itself would arguably be like most any other Midwestern city. There is a river running through it and there are some train tracks that long ago established it as a transportation hub. Aside from that, it has malls, restaurants, a few decent museums and such, but most all of it is merely mediocre in scope and scale – like dozens of other cities of the same size and climate.
But Denver joins a smaller more “elite” group of cities when judged by the number and popularity of its professional sports teams that play here. We have professional baseball, hockey, basketball, and football. (We probably have professional hacky sack, snowmobiling, and pumpkin chunkin’ teams as well, but really, outside of the big four, nobody cares.) And folks in Denver, like in other cities, love their sports teams – especially the Broncos. I suspect it’s because for a few moments it makes people feel almost as good as their friends who choose to live on one of the coasts or in some truly cosmopolitan place with actual culture.
Basically what we are talking about here is the fact that the people in Denver love the Broncos for the same reason middle-aged men buy expensive sports cars. It makes them feel important, virile, and relevant – if only temporarily. Some people here remember when the Broncos were more than a barely mediocre football team and they miss feeling relevant and virile, the same way a middle-aged man misses the hair that used to grow on the crown of his head.
And they’ll do anything to recapture that feeling of glory – even pray. Yep. Every week, Tim Tebow (the second-rate quarterback who replaced the Bronco’s third-rate quarterback some weeks ago) kneels on the sidelines and prays so hard it looks as if he’s about to sprain his eyelid muscles by squeezing them shut too hard. There he is every week, dressed in all that spandex, invoking Jesus’ name and losing game after game in full 60-inch high definition. Meanwhile, Jesus is either too busy to listen or just doesn’t care about football because the Broncos have lost their last three games, including the one just played against the quarterback Tebow replaced.
If you detect a little snarkiness here it’s for a couple of reasons: 1) I’m a little snarky, and 2) I’m embarrassed that the only way we can hope to win a few football games is to pray for help from a deity. I’d much rather the Broncos just tried to win games by practicing and improving, like other teams. But that doesn’t mean I want the Broncos to lose as they move on to their completely undeserved spot in the playoffs next week. In fact, I want them to win badly!
You see, when the Broncos play football, all of the middle-aged men with expensive sports cars are too busy kneeling on their living room floors praying for a win in front of their televisions to be out on the roads. Meanwhile, their wives and girlfriends are presumably too busy heating up another batch of Velveeta and Ro-tel dip to be out shopping. For a few short hours every Sunday, traffic in Denver clears like Moses parting the Red Sea. The zoo empties out, the restaurants are accessible, the need to buy movie tickets in advance is gone, and parking abounds at the mall – a real miracle. So Jesus, I don’t know if you are listening but can you please help the Broncos win a few more games? I need to go to Wal-Mart next weekend. In Tebow's name, amen.
But Denver joins a smaller more “elite” group of cities when judged by the number and popularity of its professional sports teams that play here. We have professional baseball, hockey, basketball, and football. (We probably have professional hacky sack, snowmobiling, and pumpkin chunkin’ teams as well, but really, outside of the big four, nobody cares.) And folks in Denver, like in other cities, love their sports teams – especially the Broncos. I suspect it’s because for a few moments it makes people feel almost as good as their friends who choose to live on one of the coasts or in some truly cosmopolitan place with actual culture.
Basically what we are talking about here is the fact that the people in Denver love the Broncos for the same reason middle-aged men buy expensive sports cars. It makes them feel important, virile, and relevant – if only temporarily. Some people here remember when the Broncos were more than a barely mediocre football team and they miss feeling relevant and virile, the same way a middle-aged man misses the hair that used to grow on the crown of his head.
And they’ll do anything to recapture that feeling of glory – even pray. Yep. Every week, Tim Tebow (the second-rate quarterback who replaced the Bronco’s third-rate quarterback some weeks ago) kneels on the sidelines and prays so hard it looks as if he’s about to sprain his eyelid muscles by squeezing them shut too hard. There he is every week, dressed in all that spandex, invoking Jesus’ name and losing game after game in full 60-inch high definition. Meanwhile, Jesus is either too busy to listen or just doesn’t care about football because the Broncos have lost their last three games, including the one just played against the quarterback Tebow replaced.
If you detect a little snarkiness here it’s for a couple of reasons: 1) I’m a little snarky, and 2) I’m embarrassed that the only way we can hope to win a few football games is to pray for help from a deity. I’d much rather the Broncos just tried to win games by practicing and improving, like other teams. But that doesn’t mean I want the Broncos to lose as they move on to their completely undeserved spot in the playoffs next week. In fact, I want them to win badly!
You see, when the Broncos play football, all of the middle-aged men with expensive sports cars are too busy kneeling on their living room floors praying for a win in front of their televisions to be out on the roads. Meanwhile, their wives and girlfriends are presumably too busy heating up another batch of Velveeta and Ro-tel dip to be out shopping. For a few short hours every Sunday, traffic in Denver clears like Moses parting the Red Sea. The zoo empties out, the restaurants are accessible, the need to buy movie tickets in advance is gone, and parking abounds at the mall – a real miracle. So Jesus, I don’t know if you are listening but can you please help the Broncos win a few more games? I need to go to Wal-Mart next weekend. In Tebow's name, amen.
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